pgasia 2024 Review: A Few Misses, but the Polls Got the Big Stories Right

There’s a decent case that the polls were the best they’ve ever been in 2024.pgasia

That’s not necessarily true by the usual measures. When judged against the final results, the polls missed by a more or less average margin. And, worryingly, they systematically underestimated support for Donald J. Trump for the third cycle in a row.

But by a less conventional measure — value more than accuracy — the polls excelled. They were fundamentally right about a surprising and important story about the election — a story we might not have imagined, let alone expected, without them.

Let’s go through a quick list:

Big Trump gains among young and nonwhite voters and a huge decline in racial polarization? Check. In the end, Mr. Trump surged among Hispanic and Asian voters; turnout plunged among Black voters; and the partisan gap between white and nonwhite voters fell to its lowest level since the Civil Rights Act in 1964.

A Trump advantage among low-turnout voters, one so great that it merited disregarding Democratic strength in special elections and off-year general elections? Check.

Surprising gains for Mr. Trump in the places where Republicans excelled in the midterm election, like Florida and New York City? Check.

A reduced gap between the popular vote and the Electoral College, and even a Trump popular vote victory? Check. In the end, Mr. Trump’s advantage in the Electoral College almost evaporated. There was only a small gap between the “tipping-point” state — Pennsylvania, which Mr. Trump won by 1.7 points — and the national popular vote, which Mr. Trump leads by 1.5 points.

A national political environment that was deeply unfavorable to Democrats, including a Republican advantage in party identification? Check. Whether by the exit polls, the AP/VoteCast data or the pre-election polls, Republicans now outnumber Democrats in America for the first time in decades.

Maybe you, dear reader, would have seen all of this coming without the polls. As for me? Not a chance.

Two years ago, I thought a Biden-Trump rematch would probably look a lot like the 2020 election. It wouldn’t be an exact rerun, of course, but I would have guessed it would be pretty similar.

From the start, the polls said a Biden-Trump rematch would be nothing like the 2020 election. Every single one of these surprising shifts was clear in the polls more than a year ahead of the election. It’s hard to think of a cycle when so many polls, so far ahead of time, wound up telling the tale.

Importantly, many alternative measures didn’t tell the tale. Fund-raising, crowds, special elections and the Washington primary all augured well for Democrats. The assumption the electorate would simply behave as it did in the past also boded well for Democrats.

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She is spending far more money than he is — nearly three times more in August.

Mr. Robinson, whom Mr. Trump endorsed in March, has denied the report and vowed to stay in the race. But both parties are looking closely at the fallout, which could have a spillover effect in the presidential contest, given that North Carolina is a key battleground state that Mr. Trump won twice but that Democrats see as competitive.

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